KOSPI rose, but 7 out of 10 fell... ‘Semiconductor focus’ intensifies again

Only 265 stocks rose in September… 651 stocks fell, 69.1%

Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix defends the index... Transaction amount is less than half of June

In September, KOSPI maintained an upward trend on a monthly basis, but the movements of individual stocks were different. While large semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix supported the index, the stock prices of 7 out of 10 KOSPI listed stocks fell.

Until August, most stocks rose together, but the number of rising stocks decreased by one-third in just one month. As trading volume fell to the lowest level of the year, the gap between the index and the market conditions perceived by investors widened.

Rising stocks: 743 → 265… Stock market turned upside down in one month

According to KRX on the 2nd, the number of stocks whose stock prices rose in the KOSPI market in the month of September was 265, accounting for only 28.1% of the total. On the other hand, 651 stocks fell, or 69.1%, and 26 stocks (2.8%) closed flat.

Compared to a month ago, the change is clear. In August, 743 (79.0%) of KOSPI listed stocks rose, and only 171 (18.2%) fell.

The number of stocks that rose in one month decreased by 64.3% from 743 to 265. During the same period, the number of stocks that declined increased by 280.7% from 171 to 651.

Nevertheless, in September KOSPI rose 0.26% on a monthly basis. The directions of the index and individual stocks are different.

What supported the index were large semiconductor stocks. During the month of September, SK Hynix rose 6.09% and Samsung Electronics rose 3.27%. Samsung Electro-Mechanics also rose 3.77%.

As semiconductor stocks with a large market capitalization weight showed strength, KOSPI maintained positive returns despite declines in many stocks.

Kyeong-min Lee, a researcher at Daishin Securities, analyzed, “Profit-taking sales were made in an unstable macroeconomic environment, and there was no clear momentum other than AI semiconductors, so circular selling in the non-semiconductor industry was limited.”

In fact, only two industries exceeded the KOSPI return in September: semiconductors and energy.

The transaction amount also increased from 50 Trillion Won to 21 Trillion Won… Market vitality slows down

While the warmth for each stock weakened, trading also decreased. The average daily trading volume of KOSPI in September was 21.2925 Billion Won, the lowest on a monthly basis this year.

The average daily trading volume, which increased to 50.3471 Billion Won last June, decreased to 36.8750 Trillion Won in July, 25.8460 Billion Won in August, and then to 21 Trillion Won in September. Compared to June, it is less than half.

It is interpreted that external uncertainty has increased, such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a surge in international oil prices, and a rise in long-term interest rates in the United States, as well as the theory of controlling the speed of AI investment and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Chuseok holiday, which has also had an effect on the decline in transactions.

The discrepancy between the index and individual stocks also appeared during the day. On the 21st of last month, KOSPI closed at 7007.72 and recovered to the 7000 level, but only 310 stocks advanced on this day, while 552 stocks declined.

Index raised by semiconductors... Stock spread is limited

The characteristics of the September market were more clearly revealed in where the uptrend was concentrated rather than the amount of increase in the index.

Semiconductors continued their strong performance based on exports and performance expectations, but the buying trend did not spread to non-semiconductor industries. Even if the index rises, many stocks are unable to keep up.

In the securities market, while the semiconductor market continues to be strong, the possibility of circular selling occurring in non-semiconductor industries is also discussed.

Researcher Kyeong-min Lee suggested the possibility of circular selling centered on undervalued and underprivileged stocks based on robust exports and visible performance improvement in the non-semiconductor industry.

Yang Il-woo, a researcher at Samsung Securities, also mentioned the possibility that the relative returns of industries other than semiconductors will increase if the high proportion of semiconductors in the KOSPI is eased, saying that profits from diversified investments could increase in October.

Although the KOSPI rose in September, the number of stocks whose stock prices rose was less than 30% of the total. In October, the extent to which buying power outside of semiconductors expands is expected to be a criterion for measuring the gap between the index and the perceived market trend.