[Seoul Market Close Briefing] October 1, Joseon’s No. 4 hitter ‘Semiconductor’ comeback

PCE, Micron, and export indicators are easily digested… Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix turns upward

KOSDAQ rises highest since August 10th... More than 1,100 stocks rise together

Key Market Trends

① PCE falls below expectations… Easing the burden of interest rate hike in October

August PCE fell short of market expectations by 0.1%p compared to the previous month and 0.3%p compared to the previous year.

There was also an analysis that the change in the calculation method of some items lowered the figure by about 0.2%p, but even taking this into account, the level is better than concerns.

Following New York Fed President John Williams' announcement that there was no need to rush further hikes, and the last PCE before the FOMC in October coming out smoothly, the outlook for a freeze was strengthened.

② Micron’s good performance… Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix turns upward

Micron beats market expectations with sales, profits, and guidance for next quarter

After-hours stock prices did not show a clear direction due to concerns about a slowdown in gross profit margin, but the performance itself reaffirmed the strong performance of the memory industry.

Micron announced that it has agreed to 75% of next year's volume with its customers and is currently discussing volumes up to 2028.

In Korea, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which were initially sluggish, turned upward, accounting for about 85% of the index's increase.

Exports also increased significantly in September, confirming the export boom that continued throughout the third quarter.

③ KOSDAQ strong rebound… Spread of circulation in small stores

Semiconductor materials, components, and equipment stocks are strong on expectations of Micron's performance and investment expansion

Buying momentum spreads to robots, automobile parts, pharmaceuticals, secondary batteries, games, etc.

KOSDAQ rose the most since August 10th, and more than 1,100 stocks rose for the first time since September 4th.

This is the first time since June 26 that foreign investors and institutional investors have each net purchased more than 3,000 Billion Won on KOSDAQ.

Supply and demand and industry

Foreign Investors switch to intraday net buying in the electrical and electronics industry in KOSPI and net buying in pharmaceuticals, securities, medical precision devices, and telecommunications.

Net selling in finance, machinery, metal, transportation equipment, chemicals, etc.

Institutional Investors Net Buy Electrical/Electronics, Pharmaceuticals, Metals, Finance, etc.

In KOSDAQ, both foreign investors and institutional investors engage in large-scale net buying, supporting the rise of the index.

The Man's Perspective

We successfully passed the three events that the market was waiting for: PCE, Micron performance, and export indicators. It was used as a positive material rather than CellOn, which had been a concern, and in particular, Micron's performance was the result of lowering some of the controversy over the peak of the memory industry.

SK Hynix also announced that it would make a decision considering shareholder value regarding the recently controversial listing of Solidigm. It helped to revive semiconductor investment sentiment by somewhat lowering concerns about value dilution due to stake reduction.

Of course, interest rate and oil price burdens remain in the short term. Negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet yielded clear results. However, as crude oil exports from the Middle East have recently increased significantly, it is necessary to wait and see whether related news expands enough to change the market trend.

The stock market that has continued since September continues into the early fourth quarter. As both markets are areas where the price burden is not high, it is time to check whether circular selling continues centered on existing leading stocks and investment/policy related stocks.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.