[Market Man Weekend Briefing] October 10, Open AI concerns calm, performance expectations rise

The controversy over lower Open AI sales was resolved due to differences in counting methods... AI growth concerns eased

Oil prices stabilize as tensions ease in the Middle East... Expectations for next week's earnings season also support the stock market

Key Market Trends

① Concerns over Open AI sales calm down… AI growth controversy ends

The Open AI sales controversy that pressured technology stocks the previous day calmed down in one day.

The lowering of the annualized sales forecast from $70 billion to $50 billion is interpreted as a result of a change in sales calculation method rather than a deterioration in actual performance.

Analysis shows that there is a difference in the counting method, with OpenAI excluding sales through partner companies, while Antropic includes sales through AWS, Google, etc.

Bloomberg predicts that OpenAI's annualized sales could reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of the year, and that the contribution of corporate customers will increase.

However, given that semiconductor stocks plummeted due to a single related report the previous day, it is confirmed that market caution regarding the scale and profitability of AI investment is still high.

② Easing tensions in the Middle East… Oil price anxiety calms down

Concerns about war in the Middle East ease as President Trump says he will not take military action against Iran before the midterm elections.

News of China's resumption of refined oil exports and Russian diesel supply also had an impact on oil price stability.

However, tensions have not been completely resolved, with Iran warning that it will sanction ships that violate regulations even outside the strait.

There remains a possibility that the volatility of international oil prices will increase again even with small signals related to future military action.

③ Expectations for performance season… 9 out of 11 industries rose

The U.S. third quarter earnings season begins in earnest starting with major banking stocks next week.

Earnings expectations support the stock market as S&P 500 companies' third-quarter profits are expected to increase by about 31% compared to the previous year.

Among 11 industries, 9 industries rose excluding energy and communication services.

However, some large technology stocks such as NVIDIA, Apple, Meta, and Micron fell, showing clearer differentiation by industry and stock than in the index.

market point

The concerns about Open AI sales that shook the market the previous day were largely resolved within a day. Concerns about AI growth also calmed down as analysis emerged that it was not the sales themselves that had slowed sharply, but differences in the counting method that had the effect.

However, it is worth noting that the market reacted sensitively to reports related to Open AI. As AI investment has increased rapidly, the market is now trying to confirm not only the growth rate but also the cash flow and profitability to cover large-scale investments.

In the Middle East, the burden on oil prices has eased somewhat as the possibility of US military operations against Iran has decreased. As major companies' third quarter earnings announcements begin in earnest starting next week, there is a possibility that some of the market's attention will shift from interest rates and oil prices to earnings.

Although domestic stock markets are closed, the MSCI Korea index rose 0.54%. During the holiday season, U.S. semiconductor stocks experienced significant volatility due to concerns about Open AI, but related concerns appear to be calming down. After the domestic stock market reopens, it is necessary to check how the overseas semiconductor flows and foreign supply and demand accumulated during the holiday period are reflected in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

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