[Market Man's Closing Briefing] October 12th, no treasury stocks, no good news

From the burden of interest rates and oil prices to concerns about semiconductors... KOSPI leaves the box range and falls near the 200-day line

Supply and demand gap after Samsung Electronics' stock repurchase ends... KOSDAQ also suffered its largest drop since August 21st

Key Market Trends

① Overseas stock markets held up, but domestic supply and demand burden increased

During the holiday season, U.S. stock markets rose slightly despite controversy over Open AI performance.

Concerns about Open AI sales quickly calmed down as it was reported that this was due to a change in the calculation method, but caution surrounding AI companies' funding continued.

As some noise continues, such as the withdrawal of the listing of an AI company invested by NVIDIA, the market's sensitivity to expansion of AI investment appears to have increased.

As the battle continues without a clear agreement in the Middle East, the burden of oil prices and interest rates is limiting buying power in the domestic stock market.

② Memory week was sluggish throughout the holidays… Semiconductor noise persists

The sluggish performance of memory stocks during the holiday period in the U.S. stock market also weighed on domestic semiconductor stocks.

The possibility of China's CXMT's next-generation DDR5 being released within the year was discussed, and PC shipments were also expected to decline.

Following rumors of a reduction in Apple iPhone 18 production, there is a growing concern that demand for PCs may also weaken, raising awareness of the impact of rising memory prices on final demand.

Stocks with top market capitalization, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fell sharply, increasing the KOSPI decline.

③ Supply and demand gap after treasury stock termination… Fall for 4 consecutive trading days

KOSPI fell for 4 consecutive trading days since last week

Among these, three trading days overlap with the period when the purchasing entity that accepted foreign sales weakened after Samsung Electronics' stock purchase was virtually completed.

There remains the possibility of additional shareholder returns in the future, but there is caution that a supply and demand gap may continue until specific details are disclosed.

With the inflow of new funds limited, KOSPI broke out of the existing range and fell to around the 200-day line, and KOSDAQ also fell by the largest margin since August 21.

Supply and demand and industry

Foreign Investors are net sellers of electricity, electronics, finance, machinery, etc., and net buyers of distribution, transportation warehouses, and construction on the KOSPI.

On KOSDAQ, net selling of electrical/electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals

Institutions net sold electricity, electronics, and construction in the KOSPI and net bought finance, transportation equipment, transportation warehouses, and pharmaceuticals.

In KOSDAQ, net selling of machinery, electrical and electronics, and net buying of medical precision equipment, non-metals, chemicals, etc.

By industry, shipping, insurance, airlines and some holding companies rose, while in the KOSDAQ, secondary batteries, robots, semiconductor managers, and entertainment companies were weak.

The Man's Perspective

The domestic stock market has fallen for four consecutive trading days since last week. While the U.S. stock market was relatively strong during the holiday period, in Korea, interest rates, oil price burden, and semiconductor-related concerns overlapped with supply and demand gaps.

In particular, as Samsung Electronics' stock repurchase virtually ended, the number of buyers who accepted foreign sales weakened. Since the inflow of new funds is limited, the index decline appears to increase on days when there is no clear positive news.

On the other hand, excluding supply and demand factors, there is no significant change in corporate performance outlook. Although controversy over the peak of the memory industry and concerns over AI investment are recurring, no new materials have been released recently that could significantly change the performance outlook.

KOSPI entered the oversold zone due to its recent decline, and KOSDAQ also suffered a large decline due to the continuous selling of investment trusts. There is a possibility that differentiation among stocks will continue compared to the index for the time being, so it is necessary to look at the trend of recently strong industries and stocks with expectations of performance improvement.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.