[Market Man’s Closing Briefing] October 13th, ‘KO’ SPI pushed to the brink of ‘KO’

CXMT, AI bubble theory, and oil price rise overlap, plummeting by more than 7% during the day... Fall for 5 consecutive trading days

The index was shaken by the plunge of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix... The decline narrowed due to the influx of institutional and standby buying in the latter half of the session.

Key Market Trends

① CXMT shock reflected belatedly… semiconductor selloff

Reports of Chinese memory company CXMT's cutting-edge chip launch within the year served as a direct trigger for the sharp decline in semiconductor stocks.

Concerns have spread that the speed of technology development may be faster than that of Samsung Electronics even though it is not yet in the commercialization stage, and some media outlets have published headlines about technology being ‘two years faster’, increasing vigilance.

Although it was a material that was reflected once in the US market the previous day, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell sharply as sales were concentrated in Korea late.

SK Hynix broke out of the 200-day line for the first time since May of last year, and Samsung Electronics fell to the 200-day line it recorded during its plunge last July.

② From Broadcom’s remarks to the AI ​​bubble theory… Oil prices also rise further

Broadcom CEO's remarks also put pressure on investor sentiment

He pointed out that bottlenecks such as memory and power could be overcome as early as next year, and that the key issue in AI investment thereafter could be capital.

Concerns about speculative investment have been highlighted again, with AI investors even making remarks to the effect that they ‘look like they are in a casino.’

International oil prices also rose further despite President Trump's message of increased supply.

As market instability factors spread from Iran to the Saudi-Houthi conflict and problems with energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine, it weighed on the domestic stock market.

③ Plunge by more than 7% during the day… Decrease in losses due to pending purchases

KOSPI plunged more than 7% during the day, remaining weak for 5 consecutive trading days.

The decline in the second half of the market narrowed as waiting funds and institutional purchases aimed at a rebound after the plunge came in.

The perception that the index fell by more than 1,000 points in 5 trading days was excessive also affected the inflow of purchases.

Due to the high proportion of short-term funds inflow after the plunge, there is a limit to the ability to reverse the index.

Supply and demand and industry

Foreign Investors concentrated net selling in the electrical and electronics industry on KOSPI, and also had an advantage in selling in finance, chemicals, machinery, and transportation warehouses.

Net purchases of construction, distribution, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, securities, etc.

Institutions made net purchases in most industries except chemicals and construction, with particular focus on electrical and electronics, finance, and transportation equipment.

In KOSDAQ, secondary batteries, some semiconductor division heads, and entertainment stocks performed relatively well, while most industries, including communication equipment, performed poorly.

The Man's Perspective

Recently, bad news has been focused on semiconductor stocks, coinciding with the completion of share buybacks. With foreign supply and demand weakening due to rising interest rates and oil prices, even the main buyer of treasury stocks has disappeared, greatly increasing the sensitivity of stock prices to negative news.

CXMT issues also need to be viewed separately. It is still unclear whether the product scheduled to be released at the end of the year is a prototype or an actual mass-produced product, and the industry views the possibility of large-scale mass production in the short term as low. The possibility of Chinese chips being applied to U.S. data centers is also limited. To date, the performance forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not been revised downward.

Nevertheless, in a situation where supply and demand instability is not resolved, the meaning of the technical support line itself may weaken. If the interest rate and oil price burden continues and foreign selling continues, there is a possibility that short-term volatility will not subside easily.

KOSPI has already entered the oversold zone since last week, and today's drop was excessive compared to the weight of the news. As standby buying came in late in the market, it is necessary to look at the reaction of large-cap stocks that have recently suffered significant declines and KOSDAQ stocks that have plummeted after continuing their strong performance.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.