[Market Man’s Loading Briefing] October 13th, mixed on CXMT variables and oil price rise

Memory stocks such as Micron fell 4-5% due to reports of CXMT technology progress.

International oil prices rose 2.06%... A wait-and-see approach ahead of earnings season and price indicators

Key Market Trends

① Report on CXMT technology progress… Memory stocks weaken together

Major semiconductor stocks fell on reports that Chinese memory company CXMT had made progress in developing new chips.

Micron, SK Hynix ADR, and SanDisk fell by 4-5%, and the weakness in semiconductor stocks also spread to optical communications-related stocks.

Micron's decline widened due to the Taiwanese labor union conflict issue.

However, given that the possibility of Chinese memory being used in U.S. data centers is limited, it is evaluated as a warning factor for future intensification of competition rather than a material that will change the immediate market structure.

② Oil prices rise 2% due to tensions in the Middle East... Interest rates are closed

International oil prices rose 2.06% due to conflicting reports of a ceasefire at energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.

As the military conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continues, President Trump mentions the possibility of participating in the Saudi-Houthi conflict, raising concerns about the escalation of war in the Middle East.

The market estimates that the further rise in oil prices will be determined by actual damage to crude oil transportation or refining facilities rather than military conflict itself.

The U.S. bond market is closed for Columbus Day, limiting movements in government bond yields.

③ Wait-and-see approach ahead of earnings season and price index… 8 out of 11 industries rose

A wait-and-see mentality ahead of the earnings announcements of major banks such as JP Morgan and ASML and TSMC.

Corporate profits are expected to increase by more than 30% compared to the previous year, but as high expectations have already been reflected, there is a possibility that the market will react more sensitively to future prospects than to performance numbers.

The index was mixed, but 8 out of 11 industries rose

Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta rose, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell due to the weakness of semiconductors.

The Man's Perspective

The domestic stock market continues to face uncertainty over the supply and demand of large semiconductor stocks. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are major semiconductor stocks and account for a large portion of the KOSPI, so they are also stocks whose foreign supply and demand react first to changes in interest rates, oil prices, and exchange rates.

The end of share buybacks has also recently had an impact on supply and demand. On the other hand, there is no significant change in the memory industry conditions confirmed in Samsung Electronics' performance and in the performance outlook for American AI companies. The recent weakness in stock prices is largely due to supply and demand and external variables rather than the industry itself.

CXMT's technological progress may weigh on domestic semiconductor stocks in the short term. However, as the possibility of using Chinese chips in U.S. data centers is limited, it is not the right time to look at it as a material that will change the competitive landscape of the high-performance memory market for AI.

In the short term, volatility may continue depending on supply and demand and movements in interest rates and oil prices. Among stocks that have recently undergone adjustments, it is necessary to look at the movements of industries with maintained performance trends, existing strong industries, and policy and investment-related stocks.

Today's checkpoint

Semiconductor: Report on CXMT technology progress and domestic reflection of 4-5% decline in US memory stocks

Supply and Demand: Foreign Investors trading after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s stock repurchase ends

Oil Prices: Will international oil prices, which rose to the $93 range amid tensions in the Middle East, rise further?

Performance: This week’s performance of banking stocks, ASML, and TSMC and future outlook

key indicators

Dollar Index 102.58 (+0.37%)

International oil price $93.74 (+2.06%)

Volatility Index 15.21 (+2.49%)

MSCI Korea Index -4.02%

Nightly Futures -2.10%

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

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