[Seoul Pre-Market Briefing] October 2nd, interest rates fall and rise due to Micron's good performance

US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.23%... New York stock market rises due to strength in Micron and semiconductor stocks

Oil prices rose 2.71%... Domestic stock market pays attention to supply and demand of foreign large-cap stocks

Key Market Trends

① 10-year bond rate falls to 5.23%… Expectations for October freeze increase

Despite the rise in international oil prices, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate fell to 5.23%.

The recent surge in interest rates led to an influx of purchases of bonds at low prices, and the lower-than-expected PCE also affected interest rate stability.

Federal Reserve Director Philip Jefferson said that additional policy decisions require more time and that trends and forecasts of indicators should be checked carefully.

New York Fed President John Williams previously said there was no need to rush to further increase, adding strength to the outlook for interest rates to be frozen in October.

The fact that the U.S. Treasury filled all of its $6 billion worth of Treasury buybacks also had an impact on the decline in interest rates.

② Micron’s performance re-evaluation… Semiconductor stocks rise together

Micron rose as its strong earnings outlook again received attention despite concerns about gross profit margin that had been raised immediately after the earnings announcement.

Positive evaluation of the memory industry continued as fixed customer commitments increased from $22 billion to $32 billion in June.

There are also positive outlooks on HBM price and free cash flow in the securities market.

Semiconductor-related stocks such as Seagate, Arm, and Marvel Tech also rose together.

SK Hynix ADR rose 5%

③ International oil prices rise by 2.71%... Middle East unrest continues

The international oil price rose 2.71% to $92.87.

Following reports of Chinese companies suspending exports of jet fuel and gasoline, news of the US dispatching additional aircraft carriers to the Middle East stimulated oil prices.

President Trump also mentioned the possibility of a hard line regarding the Middle East, increasing uncertainty.

It was also mentioned that negotiations between the United States and Iran have reached a significant level, but no specific agreement has yet been confirmed.

Although interest rates have fallen, oil prices and the Middle East situation are still a burden on the stock market.

The Man's Perspective

The domestic stock market rose significantly on the first trading day of October, successfully passing the major events of PCE and Micron performance and exports in September. The price index lowered the burden of interest rate hikes, and Micron's performance alleviated some concerns about the peak of the memory industry.

Although controversy remains surrounding Micron's gross profit margin, its performance itself was strong. In particular, the fact that long-term customer contracts continue to increase is evaluated as a factor that lowers the possibility of a sharp memory downcycle like in the past.

Now, foreign investors' supply and demand of KOSPI is important in the domestic stock market. In September, foreign investors net sold about 20 Trillion Won, while other corporations net bought about 30 Trillion Won. Share Buybacks of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have received a significant portion of foreign sales. As Share Buybacks enters its final stage, it is important to see whether foreign selling calms down and buying momentum flows in again.

Micron's good performance is an ingredient that can stimulate foreign supply and demand. On the other hand, high interest rates and rising oil prices remain a burden. It is necessary to focus on the stock market that has continued since September and check the trends of existing strong industries and policy- and investment-related stocks.

Today's checkpoint

Foreign supply and demand: Whether foreign investors will switch to buying, focusing on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

Semiconductor stocks: Micron rise and SK Hynix ADR 5% strength reflected domestically

U.S. Treasury interest rate: Will the 10-year bond interest rate, which has fallen to 5.23%, be further stabilized?

International oil prices: Oil prices rose 2.71% and whether the situation in the Middle East will worsen further

key indicators

Dollar Index 101.48 (+0.11%)

International oil price $92.87 (+2.71%)

Volatility Index 16.39 (+0.31%)

US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate 5.23%

MSCI Korea Index +1.82%

Night Futures -0.08%

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.