[Seoul Market Close Briefing] October 2nd, taking a breather amid mixed indicators

Falling interest rates and strength in semiconductors are positive… Intraday volatility due to rising oil prices and dollar

Jisoo takes a breather ahead of the holidays... The market continues for stocks such as communication equipment, oil refining, and robots.

Key Market Trends

① 10-year bond rate falls to 5.23%… The theory of peak interest rates also appears

The US 10-year Treasury yield, which had exceeded 5.3% during the day, fell to 5.23%.

Federal Reserve Director Philip Jefferson said the bank should be cautious in making further policy decisions, adding support to the outlook for an interest rate freeze in October, following New York Fed President John Williams.

The U.S. Treasury's purchase of $6 billion worth of government bonds and the movement of funds into German and U.S. government bonds due to financial instability in France also influenced the decline in interest rates.

As the increase in U.S. Treasury yields in the third quarter reached the highest level since 1994, some analysts say that the recent increase was excessive.

② Micron’s performance re-evaluation… Relax memory peak theory

In the U.S. stock market, Micron overcame the after-hours weakness and rose immediately after announcing its earnings, which had some positive impact on domestic semiconductor investment sentiment.

The fact that the number of long-term customers is increasing and that volumes until 2028 are currently being negotiated serves as a factor in alleviating concerns about the peak of the memory industry.

It is explained that concerns surrounding gross profit margin are due to increased incentives rather than sluggish sales.

Positive evaluations of the semiconductor industry continue, with the prospect that supply shortages may continue even after capacity expansion.

③ Rising oil prices and dollars are a burden… Taking a breather before the holidays

International oil prices rise as reports of America's third aircraft carrier moving to the Middle East and troop build-up emerge.

The dollar also strengthened, limiting domestic stock market gains.

Oil refining stocks rose strongly on news of China's suspension of oil product exports, and communications equipment, robots, and shipping also rose.

Semiconductor materials, components, and equipment stocks, which were strong the previous day, showed mixed trends by stock.

Supply and demand and industry

Foreign Investors are net selling in electrical and electronics, finance, pharmaceuticals, etc. and net buying in chemicals, distribution, transportation warehouses, and telecommunications.

KOSDAQ net buys financial, electrical and electronic industries

Institutional Investors are net buying in finance, metals, and chemicals, and net selling in electrical and electronics, transportation equipment, construction, and IT services.

KOSDAQ net buys electrical, electronic, metal, etc.

The Man's Perspective

In today's market, oil prices rose, interest rates fell, and the dollar strengthened. The decline in interest rates itself is positive, but we also need to look at the reasons why interest rates fell.

If the euro weakened due to French financial instability and funds shifted to U.S. Treasury bonds and dollars, the decline in interest rates may have reflected some of the preference for safe assets. This is why we need to check the background of the simultaneous decline in interest rates and the strengthening of the dollar.

However, the Middle East situation, European financial instability, and oil price movements are ingredients that have already been significantly exposed to the market. Rather than creating a new direction, we need to wait and see whether it acts as a factor in increasing volatility for the time being.

KOSDAQ rose for three consecutive weeks for the first time since April. The stock market that has continued since September also appears to be continuing. It is time to look into whether circular selling continues in existing leading stocks and policy and investment-related industries, including communications equipment and semiconductor division managers.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.