[Seoul Weekend Briefing] October 3, rising due to sluggish employment and falling oil prices

U.S. employment expectations fall significantly short... Probability of interest rate freeze in October rises to 77%

Amid falling oil prices, top market capitalization stocks all strengthened... MSCI Korea index rose 3.1%

Key Market Trends

① 29,000 people employed in September… significantly lower than expected

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, well below market expectations of 85,000.

Employment in August was also adjusted downward from 162,000 to 133,000.

Hourly wages rose 0.1% from the previous month and 3.0% from the previous year, below market expectations of 0.3% and 3.2%, respectively.

As employment and wage growth slows, the probability of interest rates being frozen in October rises to 77% according to FedWatch.

However, as temporary factors such as rising labor market participation rate, Labor Day holiday, and delayed new semester were also mentioned, emphasis was placed on easing the interest rate burden rather than a sudden economic slowdown.

② Oil prices fall due to reports of release of reserve oil... Middle East tensions continue

International oil prices fall amid reports that the G7 will release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel

Following the recent increase in crude oil supply in the Middle East, the number of LNG ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz also increased to the highest monthly level since the war.

Intraday WTI fell by nearly 5% at one point.

However, as the possibility of Saudi Arabia's Houthi attack was mentioned, the decline was reduced and the company closed down 1.9%.

Oil price volatility continues as supply expansion in the Middle East and geopolitical tensions continue simultaneously.

③ Top 7 rise all at once… AI/semiconductor strength

All eight U.S. stock market Market Capitalization stocks rose, driving the index's rise.

NVIDIA hits an all-time high at one point during the day

BoA raised its 2030 data center market forecast from $1.8 trillion to $2.2 trillion.

Related stocks such as NVIDIA, Intel, Marvell, and Lam Research are strong due to expectations of increased AI investment.

Tesla's vehicle deliveries in the third quarter also rose to 486,532 units, exceeding market expectations of 463,761 units.

market point

The U.S. stock market accepted sluggish employment as a sign of lowering the burden of interest rate hikes rather than as a sign of an economic recession. As the wage growth rate came out lower than expected, the outlook for an interest rate freeze in October was further strengthened.

The decline in oil prices was also positive for the stock market. As the supply of crude oil increased in the Middle East, reports of the release of oil reserves were added, which worked in the direction of lowering the price burden. However, as military tensions in the Middle East continue, it is necessary to confirm whether oil prices will stabilize further.

In technology stocks, expectations for AI investment have emerged again. NVIDIA hit an all-time high during the day, and data center investment forecasts were also raised. Semiconductor investment sentiment following Micron's performance appears to be spreading across AI infrastructure.

Although the domestic stock market is closed, the MSCI Korea index rose 3.1% and overnight futures rose 1.25%. After the holidays, it seems important to see how US interest rates, oil price trends, and strength in AI and semiconductors are reflected in the supply and demand of domestic large-cap stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

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