[Seoul Pre-Market Briefing] October 6, oil prices fall, Nvidia rises to record high

International oil prices fell 1.84%... Nasdaq's highest price, Nvidia's highest price ever

Overseas stock markets are generally good during the holiday season... In Korea, attention is paid to supply and demand before and after Samsung Electronics’ performance.

Key Market Trends

① Recovery of crude oil supply in the Middle East… International oil prices fell 1.84%

International oil prices fell due to increased crude oil exports from the Middle East and Saudi Arabia's cut in Asian supply prices.

Average daily crude oil exports from the Middle East in September were 18.3 million barrels, exceeding the 18 million barrels before the war, and the volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz also recovered to 80% of the pre-war level.

Saudi Arabia lowered its November supply price in Asia by $3 compared to the previous month.

As military tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels continued, the decline in oil prices was limited, but WTI fell 1.84% to $89.43.

② The interest rate is again 5.31%… Still, technology stocks are strong

Despite falling oil prices, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.31%.

The ISM service industry price index rose from 72.6 to 74, the highest in 4 years and 2 months.

Despite high interest rates, buying pressure is flowing into AI-related technology stocks, with stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, Broadcom, and Meta rising.

Nvidia leads the rise in technology stocks, closing at an all-time high

③ Overseas stock markets are safe during the holidays… Pay attention to domestic semiconductor supply and demand

During the holiday period, the U.S. stock market generally continued to perform well, and Taiwan and Japanese stock markets also rose significantly.

After the announcement of the U.S. employment index, the outlook for a freeze on interest rates in October became more prevalent, and oil prices were also lower than just before the holidays.

Compared to the recent strength of U.S. semiconductor stocks, the increase in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix was relatively limited.

Since September, Samsung Electronics has risen 6.2% and SK Hynix has risen 10%, while Micron has risen 12% and SK Hynix ADR has risen approximately 19% during the same period.

The Man's Perspective

Overseas stock markets did relatively well during the holiday season. After the announcement of the U.S. employment index, the outlook for an interest rate freeze in October gained weight, and international oil prices also fell lower than just before the holiday. News related to the Middle East situation and U.S. policy continues, but it does not seem to have expanded enough to change the direction of the market yet.

The short-term turning point in the domestic stock market is Samsung Electronics' provisional performance. Although some forecasts have recently been adjusted due to the influence of exchange rates and performance bonuses, the securities market is talking about the possibility of sales exceeding 100 Trillion Won.

What is noteworthy is the relative sluggishness of domestic semiconductor stocks. Compared to the recent strength of U.S. semiconductor stocks, the gains of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were limited. Rather than the industry itself, foreign selling due to interest rate and oil price burdens was concentrated in top Market Capitalization stocks.

What is important is whether Samsung Electronics' performance serves as an opportunity to resolve the relative alienation of domestic semiconductor stocks, and whether foreign supply and demand changes before and after the earnings announcement. KOSDAQ needs to check whether the supply and demand of recently strong industries such as semiconductor materials, communication equipment, and secondary batteries will continue even after the holidays.

Today's checkpoint

Samsung Electronics: Whether foreign supply and demand and relative alienation are resolved before and after the announcement of provisional results

Semiconductor: Domestic stock market reflects Nvidia's record high and US semiconductor strength

U.S. Treasury yield: 10-year yield rises again to 5.31%

International oil prices: Oil prices fell below $90 and whether supply from the Middle East will continue to recover

key indicators

Dollar Index 102.15 (+0.22%)

International oil price $89.43 (-1.84%)

Volatility Index 15.52 (+1.37%)

US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate 5.31%

MSCI Korea Index -0.22%

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

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