[Market Man’s Trading Briefing] October 7, S&P 500 hits record high due to falling interest rates

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs due to falling U.S. Treasury yields... Nvidia also reported

SK Hynix ADR falls nearly 7%... Domestic large-cap stock supply and demand remain cautious

Key Market Trends

① The rise in oil prices slows down… Falling government bond interest rates

International oil prices fell in early trading but then rebounded to the strong level.

Increased supply from Saudi Arabia, lower supply prices in Asia, recovery of production in Kuwait, and additional release of reserve oil limit the rise in oil prices.

On the other hand, the military conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels is still a cause for concern.

As oil price growth slows, French fiscal instability eases and U.S. Treasury yields fall.

As France's fiscal deficit reduction plan was revealed, concerns about a fiscal crisis originating in Europe have been reduced to some extent.

However, short-term interest rate volatility continues as large-scale issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds continues.

② S&P500·NASDAQ highest… AI stocks continue to be strong

The U.S. stock market rises as government bond yields fall, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs.

NVIDIA also rose slightly, breaking the all-time high again.

AMD rose 3% as CEO Lisa Su said the company plans to significantly increase supply next year based on strong demand.

Marvel Tech also rose 5.9% due to higher future sales forecasts.

As AI investment and performance expectations continue, technology stocks lead the market rise even in a high interest rate environment.

③ SK Hynix ADR falls by nearly 7%... Pay attention to domestic semiconductor supply and demand

In contrast to the strength of US AI stocks, SK Hynix ADR fell nearly 7%.

In foreign media, caution ahead of Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement, the strong won, uncertainty about performance bonuses, and delays in the construction of some data centers were mentioned as the background.

In Korea, the imminent end of share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is ​​also putting pressure on supply and demand.

Samsung Electronics is scheduled to complete its stock repurchase this week and SK Hynix is ​​scheduled to complete its share purchase next week, so future changes in foreign supply and demand are important.

The Man's Perspective

Interest rates and oil prices continue to be key variables in overseas stock markets. Recently, as the rise of the two variables slowed down, U.S. AI stocks showed strength again, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq also broke record highs. However, if interest rates rise sharply again, some funds may flow out of technology stocks, so it is necessary to check whether interest rates have peaked.

In Korea, the completion of share repurchase and performance of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are important. Wariness about the end of share buybacks that have been selling foreign investors has recently been affecting the supply and demand of the two stocks.

However, the performance improvement cycle continues and expectations for additional shareholder returns remain. The next point to watch is whether expectations for a new shareholder return plan after Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement lead to actual improvement in supply and demand.

There is a possibility that the seesaw market between the KOSPI and KOSDAQ will continue until the supply and demand of large-cap stocks stabilizes. In KOSDAQ, it is necessary to check whether the cyclical selling of recently strong industries such as semiconductor materials, communication equipment, and secondary batteries continues.

Today's checkpoint

Semiconductor supply and demand: Domestic reflection of SK Hynix's ADR plunge and trends between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

Treasury stock: Changes in supply and demand before and after the end of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's stock repurchase

U.S. Treasury yields: Will the recent upward trend subside and lead to the formation of a peak?

KOSDAQ: Whether to continue circular sales centered on semiconductor materials division, communication equipment, and secondary batteries

key indicators

Dollar Index 102.15 (+0.22%)

International oil price $89.44 (+0.01%)

Volatility Index 15.52 (+1.37%)

US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate 5.28%

MSCI Korea Index -0.22%

Night Futures -1.07%

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.