[Market Man's Loading Briefing] October 8, interest rate decline narrows as it falls behind the peak

The US 10-year note fell to 5.28% after exceeding 5.36% during the day... New York's three major indices weakened

10-year note bidding boom, interest rates calm due to falling oil prices... In Korea, attention is paid to Samsung Electronics’ performance and option expiration.

Key Market Trends

① Interest rates soar due to government bond issuance... Calm down after 10-year bond bid

The U.S. stock market fell from early trading due to the burden of large-scale government bond issuance.

The U.S. Treasury issued $39 billion in 10-year notes on this day, following $58 billion in 3-year notes the previous day, and plans to issue $22 billion in 30-year notes the next day.

As approximately $120 billion worth of government bonds were supplied over the course of three days, the 10-year bond interest rate at one point exceeded 5.36% and the 30-year bond exceeded 5.73%.

However, the interest rate fell from its peak as the 10-year note bid bid rate was 2.77 times, exceeding 2.71 times the previous month.

The bid rate of 2.77 times is the highest since 2016, showing that demand for government bonds is flowing in at the current interest rate.

The FOMC minutes are also interpreted as a plan to check future economic indicators while leaving open the possibility of further interest rate hikes, limiting further interest rate rises.

② Oil prices fell 1.3%… Some relief from interest rate burden

International oil prices started rising due to Iran-related tensions, but turned downward on news of supply expansion.

The decline in oil prices widened as the IEA announced that it would expedite the release of oil reserves and be prepared to release additional oil if necessary.

Saudi Arabia also presents plans to expand crude oil supply through oil pipelines and tankers.

While WTI fell 1.3%, the US 10-year yield also fell from its intraday high to 5.28%.

③ Nvidia and Tesla decline… Micron rose 4%

Large technology stocks such as Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla fell due to the burden of high interest rates.

Although the stock market recently rose to an all-time high, the number of rising stocks was limited, and criticism continued that the contribution to the index's rise was concentrated in some big tech.

On the other hand, Micron rose 4% on positive forecasts that the memory supply shortage could continue until 2028.

Maintaining a positive view on the memory industry as long-term contracts expand and supply shortages continue to emerge

The Man's Perspective

The U.S. stock market fell as interest rates soared due to the burden of government bond issuance, but the fall was reduced in the latter half of the session as interest rates pushed back from their peak. Bidding demand for 10-year notes was stronger than expected, and international oil prices also fell, reducing some of the pressure to raise interest rates.

In the domestic stock market, Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement and option expiration date overlap. Since Samsung Electronics' good performance itself has been largely reflected in the market, attention is likely to be focused on how long the improvement trend will continue rather than on the performance numbers.

Memory companies such as Micron and Samsung Electronics are repeatedly emphasizing the expansion of long-term contracts and the sustainability of supply shortages. Contrary to the recently raised concerns about the memory industry peaking, the performance environment itself is evaluated to remain solid.

The maturity schedule in early October and the completion of share purchases by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have also increased supply and demand volatility. It is necessary to see whether the short-term supply and demand burden eases as the option expires, and whether expectations for subsequent performance and additional shareholder returns emerge again.

Today's checkpoint

Samsung Electronics: Market evaluation of sustainability of performance improvement rather than provisional performance numbers

Option expiration: Will the supply and demand volatility that continued in early October subside after expiration?

Semiconductor: Micron's 4% rise and the forecast of memory supply shortage reflected domestically

U.S. Treasury interest rate: Will the 10-year bond interest rate, which fell from 5.36% to 5.28% during the day, be further stabilized?

key indicators

Dollar Index 102.28 (+0.44%)

International oil price $88.28 (-1.30%)

Volatility Index 15.08 (+0.47%)

US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate 5.28%

MSCI Korea Index -1.45%

night gift

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

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