[Market Man's Closing Briefing] October 8, supply and demand shaken by Samsung Electronics performance and SK Hynix lockup

Despite meeting Samsung Electronics' performance expectations, CellOn volume... Supply and demand burden for large semiconductor stocks

Oil prices and interest rates rise due to tensions in the Middle East... KOSDAQ rebounds in small and medium-sized enterprises and secondary batteries

Key Market Trends

① Samsung Electronics performance meets expectations… CellOn immediately after the announcement

Samsung Electronics announces provisional results of 195 trillion won in sales and 107 trillion won in operating profit

Sales slightly fell below market expectations and operating profit slightly exceeded market expectations, alleviating concerns raised by some about poor performance.

However, immediately after the earnings announcement, the stock price was burdened by the sale of profit-taking sell-ons.

In the semiconductor ETF rebalancing process, supply and demand are also affected by reducing the proportion of Samsung Electronics and increasing the proportion of other stocks.

② Oil prices and interest rates rebound due to tensions in the Middle East... Foreign selling continues

Intraday declines in the index widened amid reports that the United States was considering an attack on Iran.

Although no final decision has been made by the United States, international oil prices rise as caution about the situation in the Middle East increases.

Along with the rebound in oil prices, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield also rose again, limiting buying power in the domestic stock market.

However, it is noteworthy that demand for bonds that view current interest rates as attractive is flowing in, as the bid rate in the recent U.S. Treasury bond bid was the highest in 10 years.

③ SK Hynix volatility… ADR lock-up release is also a burden on supply and demand

SK Hynix rose early in the market and then increased intraday volatility.

Following concerns about damage to equity value due to the recent listing of subsidiaries, the approaching time to lift the lock-up of US ADRs was also mentioned as a supply and demand burden.

This coincided with the release of protected deposits 90 days after listing, which was pointed out as one of the reasons for the recent weakness in ADR.

On the other hand, the positive evaluation of the industry itself is maintained, with continued forecasts that memory demand will exceed supply by 2028.

Supply and demand and industry

Foreign Investors are net sellers of most industries in KOSPI and net buyers of construction, food, etc.

In KOSDAQ, net purchases were made in the machinery and equipment industry.

Institutions are also generally net sellers in KOSPI, except for some industries such as chemicals and metals.

In KOSDAQ, net purchases of metals, electrical and electronics, etc. and net sales of pharmaceuticals

The semiconductor division, which had been adjusted the previous day, rebounded within a day, and secondary batteries were also strong due to the good performance of LG Energy Solution.

On the other hand, pharmaceutical and bio stocks are weak due to negative news related to Alteogen and Peptron.

The Man's Perspective

The domestic stock market is showing somewhat different movements from the all-time high of the U.S. stock market. In the United States, even in a high interest rate environment, stocks with the highest market capitalization are pushing up the index as buying power is concentrated in big tech with large cash generation capacity.

In Korea, foreign selling continues amid the burden of oil prices and interest rates, and supply and demand factors such as the end of share buybacks and ETF rebalancing for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have overlapped. This is why the stock price did not react immediately even after Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement.

However, Samsung Electronics' performance itself, announced today, needs to be viewed positively. Although there continues to be controversy over the peak of the memory industry, considering the expansion of long-term contracts and the prospect of supply shortages, it is too early to determine a change in direction of the industry at this point.

Adjustments over the past two days have also lowered the price burden on some industries. As index volatility continues, it is necessary to see whether the stock market continues, focusing on existing leading industries such as semiconductor, small and medium-sized businesses and secondary batteries, and policy and investment-related stocks.

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

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