[Market Man’s Load Briefing] October 9, Semiconductor weakness due to concerns over Open AI performance

Concerns over AI investment due to reports of lower Open AI sales forecasts... Semiconductor stocks fell by around 4%

Mixed with oil price and interest rate uncertainty... Shift in supply and demand to energy, consumer staples, and finance

Key Market Trends

① Concerns about Open AI sales… AI and semiconductor stocks are both weak

Technology stocks were put on sale as the FT reported that OpenAI's annualized sales as of the end of September were about $50 billion, lower than the previous forecast of $70 billion.

As doubts grow over whether large-scale investments in AI infrastructure can be sustained, major semiconductor stocks such as Broadcom, Micron, and AMD fell by around 4%.

However, analysis has also raised that Open AI sales are calculated differently from competitors, such as excluding sales through partner companies.

Considering that sales are increasing significantly this year, it is interpreted that caution over investment speed and profitability has been highlighted rather than AI demand itself.

② Oil prices soar 5% during the day… Increased volatility in Middle East news

In early trading, international oil prices rose by more than 5% at one point as the possibility of a renewed U.S. attack on Iran was discussed.

News of the attack on an oil tanker in the waters north of Qatar, a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, and a hurricane approaching production facilities also stimulated oil prices.

In the afternoon, tensions eased some as news emerged that the U.S. and Iran were continuing talks.

As Iran also announced that it would review the U.S. proposal and respond within a few days, the stock market recovered much of its intraday losses.

③ National bond issuance schedule ends… Interest rates also fall from their peak

At the beginning of the market, U.S. Treasury yields rose due to remarks by Federal Reserve officials about additional interest rate hikes.

Federal Reserve Board Director Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem mentioned the need for additional hikes due to inflation.

However, as technology stocks fell, funds moved into bonds, and the U.S. Treasury bond issuance schedule, which lasted about $120 billion over three days, came to an end and interest rates fell from their peak.

The Man's Perspective

In the U.S. stock market, there was a clear shift in supply and demand between industries rather than weakness across the index. Six industries, including energy, consumer staples, and finance, rose, while five industries, including technology stocks, consumer discretionary goods, and healthcare, fell.

What was most noticeable was the weakness in semiconductor stocks following the Open AI sales report. As AI investment has expanded rapidly, market interest is shifting from simple sales growth to profitability that can support large-scale spending. However, considering the difference in sales calculation methods and high growth rate, it is premature to conclude that AI demand is slowing based on this report alone.

The weakness of US semiconductor stocks is a burden on the domestic stock market. The MSCI Korea index fell 4.03% and overnight futures also fell 1.84%. As Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have recently been highly volatile due to the end of their stock repurchases and foreign supply and demand issues, it is necessary to check whether the adjustment in US semiconductor stocks leads to additional selling.

On the other hand, the schedule for large-scale U.S. Treasury bond issuance has been completed, and intraday tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat. If interest rates and oil prices do not rise quickly again, it is possible that industry-specific circular selling and stock market trends will continue even during the recent adjustment process.

Today's checkpoint

Semiconductor: Broadcom, Micron, AMD, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix reflecting declines of around 4%

AI Investment: Will the Open AI sales controversy spread to concerns about overall AI infrastructure investment?

Middle East and oil prices: Progress in US-Iran dialogue and further movement in international oil prices, which had soared during the day

Supply and Demand: Foreign Investors trading after MSCI Korea Index -4.03%, overnight futures -1.84%

Source: Market Man’s Stock Story t.me/shmstory

YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004

This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.