![[Seoul Pre-Market Brief] October 14: Semiconductors, Interest Rates, Earnings, and Oil Prices Turn Mixed](https://media.markettimes.co.kr/%EC%8B%9C%ED%99%A9%EB%A7%A8-4-800x600.webp)
U.S. stock market performance, interest rates, and oil prices fell slightly due to mixed results... Philadelphia semiconductor index weak for 5 days in a row, spreading objections that CXMT concerns are excessive... US long-term interest rates fall to 5.21%, overnight futures rise 1.71%
Key market trends
- ① CXMT continued to be shocked, but the counterargument that "concerns are excessive" spread
Memory stock volatility continues as CXMT's report on technological progress overlaps with Broadcom's CEO's remarks on AI investment
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for five consecutive trading days, and memory stocks such as Micron and SK Hynix also weakened further.
On the other hand, as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD rise, the stock price trends between AI semiconductors and memory are differentiated.
Overseas, there has been a series of analyzes suggesting that concerns about CXMT are excessive.
Reliant said that CXMT has not proven its production capacity and yield and its market share is low, and that the decline in the stock price has a greater psychological effect than fundamentals.
It is pointed out that CXMT's technology corresponds to DDR5 and is not directly related to HBM, and that Korean companies' HBM competitiveness is still superior.
Cantor Fitzgerald and BMO also expressed opinions that the recent decline in memory stocks was excessive.
- ② Long-term interest rate falls to 5.21%... Oil prices are back in the $94 range
U.S. Treasury yields rose in the short term, but fell in the long term.
New York Fed President John Williams said that one additional hike could reduce the need for another hike next year, and Federal Reserve Director Christopher Waller assessed that the rise in long-term interest rates itself is suppressing demand in interest rate-sensitive industries such as housing and automobiles in lieu of monetary policy.
As long-term interest rates fell after his remarks, the stock market also recovered some of its losses.
The 10-year government bond interest rate recorded 5.21%.
International oil prices were weak at the beginning of the session, but rebounded on the news that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis attacked each other's oil-related facilities, closing at $94.14 per barrel.
- ③ Earnings season is off to a good start... Interested in next year's outlook rather than numbers
The performance of United Health, Johnson & Johnson, Domino's Pizza, etc. is relatively good.
Banking stocks were mixed, with Goldman Sachs and Citi exceeding market expectations, while JP Morgan and Wells Fargo's sales fell short of expectations.
It is a positive evaluation that loan-related losses are managed relatively stably despite high interest rates.
As earnings that exceed expectations have already become commonplace in the market, this earnings season will be more about whether the growth trend can continue into next year rather than just a simple earnings surprise.
In particular, whether Big Tech will continue to invest in AI and its actual monetization has emerged as a key confirmation target.
Market Man's Perspective
KOSPI fell for 5 consecutive trading days, losing more than 1,000 points during this period. Amid the burden of interest rates and oil prices, negative news related to semiconductors appeared one after another, and the stock buybacks of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were completed.
Starting with the controversy over Open AI sales, reports of a reduction in iPhone 18 component production, progress in CXMT technology, and Broadcom's CEO's remarks, negative news related to semiconductors was concentrated in a short period of time. It appears that stock price sensitivity to news has increased significantly compared to changes in actual performance forecasts.
There are ongoing counterarguments from overseas that CXMT is an excessive concern. Yield and large-scale mass production capabilities have not been confirmed, and this technology is also DDR5, not HBM. The possibility of Chinese products being introduced into U.S. AI data centers is currently limited. There is weight given to the interpretation that this decline shows unstable investment sentiment rather than changes in industry conditions.
Short-term declines have also increased. KOSPI broke out of major support lines one after another, but in dollar terms, it rebounded the previous day near the support line in July. A rebound in the next 1-2 trading days appears to be important in confirming the direction of the market after the recent plunge.
Today's checkpoint
Semiconductor: Overseas counterarguments to CXMT concerns and whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will rebound
Interest rate: US 10-year note falls to 5.21%... Whether long-term interest rates will remain stable?
Oil prices: Will international oil prices rise further in the $94 range amid the Saudi-Houthi conflict?
Supply and Demand: Power struggle between foreign sellers and standby buyers after the end of share buybacks
Stocks: Recently strong industry and policy-related stocks and large-cap stocks that have fallen significantly attempt to rebound
Key indicators
Dollar Index 102.20 (-0.38%)
International oil price $94.14 (+0.43%)
Volatility Index 15.27 (+0.39%)
US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate 5.21%
MSCI Korea Index -2.09%
Night Futures +1.71%
Source: Market Man's stock story t.me/shmstory
YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004
This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.
