![[Market Man's Closing Briefing] October 14th, KOSPI gets ripped off and not even 1 won back](https://media.markettimes.co.kr/%EC%8B%9C%ED%99%A9%EB%A7%A8-4-800x600.webp)
CXMT attempted to rebound due to alleviating concerns, but the increase was returned due to late-session selling pressure, and even the estimated volume of foreign selling and credit counter-selling... Increased volatility due to supply and demand instability
Key market trends
- ① "CXMT concerns are excessive"… Semiconductor rebound attempt
In the early part of the market, concerns about CXMT subsided and a rebound was attempted, centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Major analysts emphasize that news related to CXMT is at the level of technology announcement, not commercialization, and that technology, yield, and production capabilities have not yet been proven.
Considering the current memory supply shortage, it is assessed that even if CXMT significantly increases production, it is unlikely to lead to an immediate oversupply.
As this technology is also DDR5 and not HBM, the prevailing opinion is that it is not an immediate threat to domestic companies, although they are wary of the possibility of long-term competition.
- ② Oil prices and ASML shaken again… Last-minute volatility in semiconductors
International oil prices rise amid reports that the Houthis attacked Aramco headquarters during the day.
Although the target of the attack was an office facility, not an oil production facility, the market reacted sensitively to the symbolism of Aramco.
In the latter half of the market, domestic semiconductor stocks were put on sale again as ASML fell in after-hours trading even after announcing earnings that exceeded market expectations.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also gave back their initial gains, increasing volatility.
At Samsung Electronics, expectations for future dividend increases were partially reflected in the news that Chairman Lee Jae-yong received about 11 million shares as a gift, but it could not avoid the deterioration of semiconductor investment sentiment in the latter half of the market.
- ③ As the flat rate approaches, listings increase rapidly... Supply and demand instability persists
KOSPI attempted to rebound during the day, but as it approached the flat range, listings increased sharply.
As the number of lower limit orders increased even at the same asking price, it is believed that the counter-credit sales volume due to the recent sharp decline has begun to appear.
A flow of items for sale whenever the index recovers, with overlapping selling to avoid counter-selling.
Foreign Investors also reduced their net selling volume, but continued their selling advantage, limiting the index's rebound.
Supply and demand and industry
Foreign Investors are net sellers of electrical and electronics, finance, and mechanical equipment, and net buyers of transportation warehouses, IT services, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and communications, etc., on the KOSPI.
KOSDAQ concentrated net selling in semiconductor-related industries
Institutions make net purchases of electrical and electronics, transportation equipment, transportation warehouses, chemicals, etc.
Shipbuilding, fitting, and steel industries rose due to U.S. remarks regarding investment in Alaska, and automobile, secondary battery, and entertainment stocks also performed strongly.
The semiconductor division manager said that the overall weakness was due to the influence of the weak US equipment stocks, sales of adjusted proportions, and reports of delays in the introduction of SK Hynix HBM4 equipment.
Market Man's Perspective
Concerns surrounding CXMT have calmed down compared to the previous day. Since production capacity and yield have not been confirmed and this technology is DDR5, not HBM, it is difficult to see this as an issue that will immediately change the performance outlook of domestic semiconductor companies.
Comments by Federal Reserve officials also lowered some of the burden in terms of interest rates. Remarks by New York Fed President John Williams and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller suggested that further interest rate increases may be limited.
The biggest burden on the current market is supply and demand. While foreign selling continues, the recent sharp drop has led to estimates of anti-credit trading volume, causing the index to be greatly shaken by even small news. When the index rebounds, the trend of products being sold to reduce losses is repeated.
The US CPI to be released this evening is expected to be an important variable in the short term. If core prices are higher than expected, interest rate volatility may increase again along with concerns about the spread of rising energy prices. Conversely, if it meets or falls below market expectations, it could serve as an opportunity to alleviate recent supply and demand instability.
The recent decline has expanded rapidly without a clear deterioration in corporate performance or economic outlook. Volatility may continue until supply and demand are stabilized, but as this is a period in which technical rebounds can be attempted repeatedly, it is necessary to look at the movements of existing leading stocks, large-cap stocks that have seen greater declines, and policy and investment-related stocks.
Source: Market Man's stock story t.me/shmstory
YouTube: Sihwangman TV www.youtube.com/@blueoak1004
This article was rewritten from Shihwangman's Stock Story Telegram post with the author's consent. All content may contain errors and cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling as it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The content of this post cannot be used as legal basis under any circumstances.
