Overall CPI expected to rise by 0.6% compared to the previous month... The root cause is expected to slow down from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Announced on the 14th... Product and service price trends are key ahead of the FOMC on the 27th and 28th.
The US consumer price inflation rate in September is expected to increase due to the burden of energy prices. However, it is predicted that the monthly increase in core prices excluding food and energy will slow, so the main point to watch in this announcement is how much price pressure for items other than energy has eased.
According to a survey of economists conducted by Reuters, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September is expected to rise 0.6% compared to the previous month and 3.7% compared to the same month last year. The expected increase rate in core CPI is 0.2% compared to the previous month and 2.5% compared to the same month last year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will announce this indicator at 9:30 pm on the 14th, Korean time.
As expected, the monthly trends of overall prices and core prices are mixed. In August, the overall CPI rose 0.4% and the core CPI rose 0.3% compared to the previous month. In September, the increase in overall prices increased, while the increase in core prices decreased.
The burden of energy prices is behind the expected increase in overall prices. Reuters reported that rising energy prices will push up the overall CPI in September. Previously, in August, gasoline prices rose 3.9% from the previous month, accounting for more than one-third of the total monthly increase in CPI.
However, core CPI is not completely free from the influence of energy prices. Although energy items such as gasoline are excluded, it does not eliminate the impact of the burden of fuel costs reflected in product or service rates. Airfare is a typical subject of inspection. August airfares rose 2.7% compared to the previous month. Although this increase cannot all be attributed to oil prices, it is necessary to see whether the upward trend in service prices, including airfares, continues in September.
The criteria for predicting a slowdown in core prices must also be distinguished. The growth rate compared to the previous month is expected to be lower, but compared to the same month last year, it is expected to increase slightly from 2.4% in August to 2.5% in September. Since the year-on-year figures are also affected by the price level of the previous year, you must look at the monthly figures and the flow of detailed items together to understand the recent rate of increase.
This CPI will be announced ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on the 27th and 28th. If the monthly increase in core prices decreases as expected and a slowdown is confirmed across products and services, some of the concerns about additional tightening may be alleviated.
